A new user-friendly IVF prediction tool which harnesses the power of national fertility treatment data could be ‘life changing for millions worldwide’, insists a Scottish healthcare innovation leader

InnoScot Health says the free OPIS Calculator, launched by the University of Aberdeen this week, will help prospective parents to prepare both emotionally and financially thanks to easier to understand, more intuitive insights which offer predicted success rates that are unique to the individual.

The Outcome Prediction In Subfertility Calculator translates data based on various patient factors such as age and specific infertility diagnoses to give tailored estimates.

As part of its 100 Days paper, the SNP has pledged to “commission a rapid review of IVF provision in Scotland, focused on single women, same sex couples and couples where one person already has children from a previous relationship”.

Innovation Commercialisation Manager at InnoScot Health, Fiona Schaefer said: “This tool is a vital second iteration which leverages data collected from all licensed fertility treatments across the UK between 1999 and 2017 and has been specifically built with patient needs in mind.

“Its suite of evidence-based prediction models is comprehensive, which can only help patients at various stages of the IVF process reduce feelings of uncertainty while allowing them to better understand personalised fertility treatment outcomes.

“With success rates remaining highly variable, it has been sensitively developed for what could be a challenging journey, and we believe it could be life changing for millions of people worldwide in offering realistic expectations where predictions were previously lacking.”

The first OPIS IVF calculator, launched in 2016 as a statistical evidence-based model, was designed primarily as a scientific tool but was used by more than 2,500 people around the world each month.

The new calculator — a collaboration between medical statisticians and postgraduate students from the university’s Aberdeen Software Factory — aims to build on that foundation with a more accessible interface and stronger focus on usability for the patient journey, while reflecting developments in IVF practice, policy and population trends over the past decade.

Its designers say it remains dedicated to helping couples understand when continuing treatment may significantly increase their chances of pregnancy, but importantly now also assists with bespoke navigation depending on the stage of their fertility journey for both IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles.

Furthermore, the updated calculator is now able to draw on an additional six years of data collected from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA).

Fiona added: “Improved prediction of IVF success rates is important to so many people embarking on their dream of having children. The calculator offers greater evidence than has ever been available before to help them plan for clinical support and counselling.

“Its statistically robust outcome predictions can undoubtedly be a huge help in managing expectations.”

Dr David McLernon, Senior Research Fellow in Medical Statistics at the University of Aberdeen who leads the project, said: “One of the most difficult aspects of IVF is understanding how long or costly the process might be. Our calculator can show couples the cumulative chances of success for between one and six rounds of IVF.”

Dr Milan Markovic, who leads the Aberdeen Software Factory, added: “Our students have taken extensive feedback and insights from the inbuilt OPIS feedback questionnaire and ‘think‑aloud’ user sessions to completely re‑engineer the original IVF calculator.

“The result is a tool that is more functional, easier to navigate and far clearer in how it presents results. It has been an invaluable opportunity for students to work on a real‑world project with meaningful impact.”

In 2023, InnoScot Health aimed to help NHS Scotland improve women’s health with the launch of an innovation call targeted at improved pregnancy and perinatal treatment and care, in line with the Scottish Government’s Women’s Health Plan, now in its second phase.